Forecasting the Congestion Costs of the French Transmission Network (Electronics Project)

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In the chain of electrical energy, the proper operation of transmission networks is essential for guaranteeing the reliability of energy supply to consumers. However, for economical and physical reasons, transmissions network cannot have an infinite capacity.

Therefore operating constraints such as voltage stability and line overloads can lead to congestions by preventing the transmission system operator from transferring electricity according to the market desire. To avoid outages due to congestions, congestion management methods have been developed by transmission system operators.

In France, congestions are managed by the transmission system operator (RTE: Réseau de Transport d’Electricité) through a balancing mechanism. It aims at adjusting the production of some specific power plants. This regulation has a cost.This cost paid by RTE is important since it has an impact on the rate charged for using the public transmission and distribution network.

However the congestion cost is hardly predictable since it depends on the availability of load, generation and transmission devices.In this master thesis, historical data will be analyzed to study the geographical structure and the causes of congestion in French transmission network. Moreover, a method to forecast the congestion costs will be described.

First dynamic simulations are run to find the constraints issued by voltage stability. Then scenarios are created by a Monte-Carlo simulator to know the probability of occurrences of situations with constraints.

Finally, the amount of regulated production activated to solve congestion issues must be valued to derive a cost. The pricing issues are tackled by focusing on the marginal balancing price and the prices of the offers submitted to the balancing mechanism. The method is used to forecast the congestion costs at several horizons of time. The results are analyzed and some other utilization of this method are discussed.
Source: KTH
Author: Wautier, Louis

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