This thesis is realized within the framework of KTH Master of Sustainable Energy Engineering in collaboration with Global Wind Power France. The study conducted hereafter analyses the potential of wind power in North Africa. Focusing on Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia and Egypt, it aims at identifying the opportunities for onshore wind power in the region.
To realize greenfield development in an emerging market is challenging and requires some knowledge of the country’s energy background, policies and legal framework in place. First, the study compares the four countries on six necessary criteria that we considered mandatory for a small or medium company to develop wind business in the region.
Secondly, the risk of developing wind projects (from a private company’s point of view) is evaluated using five additional criteria such as the presence of an energy regulator, the land use rights or the mechanism of electricity purchase.
Finally, one scenario per country is made up to evaluate the financial viability of a project. Taking into account the wind data of four selected areas, and the risks criteria exposed previously, the Net Present Value (NPV) of four potential projects is determined. Based on this two times analysis, the study gives a complete picture of the possibility and profitability of wind farms development in the region.
As a conclusion, the study points out the most suitable country to invest in but also highlight the lacks in the different wind markets and regulatory frameworks. Far from judging the choices of the governments, the objective is to foresee the development of those countries and keep a head start on future regulations that would make profitable the development of wind power.
Author: Beauvisage, Audry